The Bayesian detection of discontinuities in a polynomial regression and its application to the cycle-slip problem   总被引：4，自引：1，他引：3  

Maria Clara de Lacy  Mirko Reguzzoni  Fernando Sansò  Giovanna Venuti 《Journal of Geodesy》2008,82(9):527-542

This paper deals with the problem of detecting and correcting cycle-slips in Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) phase data by exploiting the Bayesian theory. The method is here applied to undifferenced observations, because repairing cycle-slips already at this stage could be a useful pre-processing tool, especially for a network of permanent GNSS stations. If a dual frequency receiver is available, the cycle-slips can be easily detected by combining two phase observations or phase and range observations from a single satellite to a single receiver. These combinations, expressed in a distance unit form, are completely free from the geometry and depend only on the ionospheric effect, on the electronic biases and on the initial integer ambiguities; since these terms are expected to be smooth in time, at least in a short period, a cycle-slip in one or both the two carriers can be modelled as a discontinuity in a polynomial regression. The proposed method consists in applying the Bayesian theory to compute the marginal posterior distribution of the discontinuity epoch and to detect it as a maximum a posteriori (MAP) in a very accurate way. Concerning the cycle-slip correction, a couple of simultaneous integer slips in the two carriers is chosen by maximazing the conditional posterior distribution of the discontinuity amplitude given the detected epoch. Numerical experiments on simulated and real data show that the discontinuities with an amplitude 2 or 3 times larger than the noise standard deviation are successfully identified. This means that the Bayesian approach is able to detect and correct cycle-slips using undifferenced GNSS observations even if the slip occurs by one cycle. A comparison with the scientific software BERNESE 5.0 confirms the good performance of the proposed method, especially when data sampled at high frequency (e.g. every 1 s or every 5 s) are available.  相似文献   

自然灾害韧弹性社会的理论范式   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

吴绍洪  高江波  韦炳干  张继权  郭桂桢  王军  邓浩宇  刘路路  贺山峰  许尔琪 《地理学报》2021,76(5):1136-1147

全球环境变化和经济快速发展导致自然灾害的增加,已经成为现代人类社会最严重的环境问题之一。面对自然灾害风险防控的严峻形势,人类社会必须建设得足够强大,以应对可能发生的自然灾害风险。在提出“构筑自然灾害韧弹性社会减轻自然灾害风险”的基础上,本文重点分析韧弹性的确切涵义,通过综合灾害防御、损害恢复和应急管控,诠释自然灾害韧弹性社会的内涵、组分和结构;建立自然灾害韧弹性社会的指标体系和定量表征方法,评估案例区自然灾害韧弹性社会的状况;进而针对城乡差异设计建设自然灾害韧弹性社会的途径。依此,系统性地构建了包括概念—结构—指标—途径的自然灾害韧弹性社会理论范式。建设自然灾害韧弹性社会是人类的必然选择,这与社会经济可持续发展高度一致。研究旨在推动综合应对自然灾害风险,探索建设“更强、更安全、更持续”的自然灾害韧弹性社会途径,支撑国家防灾减灾战略转变、实施“关键领域与薄弱环节九大工程”。  相似文献   

High resolution paleoenvironmental and chronological investigations of Norse landnám at Tasiusaq, Eastern Settlement, Greenland     

Kevin J. Edwards  J. Edward Schofield 《Quaternary Research》2008,69(1):1-15

High-resolution paleoenvironmental data from a peat profile with a small pollen source area are used to reconstruct the impacts of landnám on vegetation and soils at a Norse farm complex (∅2 at Tasiusaq) comprising two farms in the Eastern Settlement of Greenland. Analyses include the AMS ¹⁴C dating of plant macrofossil samples and the use of Bayesian radiocarbon calibration to construct improved age-depth models for Norse cultural horizons. The onset of a regional landnám may be indicated by the clearance of Betula pubescens woodland immediately prior to local settlement. The latter is dated to AD 950-1020 (2σ) and is characterised by possible burning of Betula glandulosa scrub to provide grassland pasture for domestic stock. Clearance and grazing resulted in accelerated levels of soil erosion at a westerly farm. This was followed by an easterly migration of settlement and agriculture. Site constraints prevent an assessment of the demise of the easterly farm, but pressures of overgrazing and land degradation may have been the major factors responsible for the abandonment of the earlier farm.  相似文献   

台风风暴潮情景构建与时空推演     

饶文利  罗年学 《地球信息科学学报》2020,22(2):187-197

因台风风暴潮的突发性、情景演变时间的连续性和路径的不确定性,导致应急决策者在应急救援中难以做出正确决策,针对这一现状,将“情景—应对”应用在台风风暴潮应急决策中。本文在分析台风风暴潮情景、情景要素的概念模型基础上,首先通过资料搜集、属性识别等方法提取关键情景要素,采用框架表示法构建情景;然后分析台风风暴潮情景演变规律及演变路径;其次通过动态贝叶斯网络法构建台风风暴潮动态情景网络;最后利用先验概率与条件概率计算情景状态概率,实现了台风风暴潮的关键情景推演。本文以2018年9月16日11时至17时山竹台风对广东省沿海城市影响为例,演示了台风风暴潮的情景推演流程及关键技术。实证分析结果表明,溃堤、海水倒灌、洪水、滑坡发生的概率分别为85%、81%、74%、54%,验证了情景推演在风暴潮中应用的合理性。  相似文献   

Variation in the catchability of yellow perch (Perca flavescens) in the fisheries of Lake Erie using a Bayesian error-in-variable approach     

Jiao  Yan; Reid  Kevin; Nudds  Tom 《ICES Journal of Marine Science》2006,63(9):1695-1704

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A New Probability of Detection Model for Updating Crack Distribution of Offshore Structures     

李典庆  张圣坤  唐文勇 《中国海洋工程》2003,17(3)

1 .IntroductionNondestructiveinspection (NDI)isveryimportantforensuringthereliabilityofoffshorestructuresintheirservicelives (Lauraetal.,1 996 ) .Itiswellknownthatdetectionofflawsinvolvesconsider ablestatisticaluncertainties.Asaresult,theprobabilityofdetection (POD)forallflawsofagivensizehasbeenusedintheliteraturetodefinethecapabilityofaparticularNDItechniqueinagivenen vironment.SincethedataofPODusuallyscatterlargely ,itisdifficulttodeterminewhichmodelfitstheavailabledatabest.Thismodelun…  相似文献   

An assessment of Greenland walrus populations     

Witting  Lars; Born  Erik W. 《ICES Journal of Marine Science》2005,62(2):266-284

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基于BPSO-NBayes的雷暴释用预报技术研究   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

刘亚杰  胡邦辉  王学忠  王举  黄泓 《气象科学》2018,38(3):370-377

提出了一种新的雷暴预报法,即二进制粒子群-朴素贝叶斯分类器(Binary Particle Swarm Optimization-Naive Bayesian Classifiers,BPSO-NBayes)方法,以福州、连城、宁波3站为例,对使用T511数值预报产品站点的雷暴释用预报技术进行研究。利用2010—2014年T511数值预报产品和单站观测资料,使用BPSO-NBayes方法,建立了0~72 h雷暴预报模型,并与Fisher判别准则和Bayes判别准则进行比较。预报结果表明,BPSO-NBayes模型临界成功指数都在0.29以上,平均值达到0.33以上,是3种方法中最好的,空报率都在0.59以下,漏报率在0.60以下,而且变化幅度很小。BPSO-NBayes模型明显优于Fisher判别准则和Bayes判别准则,具有良好的稳定性和预报能力。  相似文献   

基于支持向量机的雷暴潜势预报初探   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

周明薇  肖稳安  张其林  周四清  彭双姿 《大气科学学报》2018,41(4):569-576

根据2008—2010年夏季邵阳地区的NCEP全球再分析资料(分辨率为1°×1°)和闪电定位资料,利用支持向量机(SVM)分类方法建立该地区雷暴潜势预报模型,并用测试样本检验了该模型的预报能力,同时与Logistic回归模型和Bayes判别法的预报效果进行了比较。结果表明,SVM模型的预报准确率为86.21%,虚警率为15.25%,漏报率为13.79%。对比三种模型的TSS技术评分,发现使用SVM方法建立的模型对邵阳地区雷暴预报的效果最好,评分值为0.79。因此,SVM方法所建立的模型可以为邵阳地区6 h的雷暴潜势预报提供一定的参考价值。  相似文献   

基于日常活动空间的社会空间分异研究进展   总被引：3，自引：2，他引：1  

申悦  柴彦威 《地理科学进展》2018,37(6):853-862

社会空间分异是城市社会学与城市地理学的经典研究议题,也是当前中国社会所面临的现实问题,在大量理论与实证研究的支撑下,形成了从居住空间出发的经典研究范式。而在人类移动性不断增强、居民活动日趋多样化的背景下,传统的研究范式显得静态和片面,难以反映社会空间分异与隔离问题的全貌,因此有必要从居民的日常活动空间出发探讨社会空间分异问题。国际学者们从不同视角出发对该议题进行了探索,本文对已有研究进行了梳理和述评,将已有研究总结为基于活动空间的群体分异与交往、个体活动空间的时空分异、社会空间分异的动态变化三种类型;并以时空间行为研究的理论和方法论为基础,从基于人的空间研究范式出发,构建“人群—活动空间—社会空间”基于活动空间的社会空间分异研究框架;尝试推进社会空间分异研究范式的多元化,从以人为本的立场出发理解城市空间和城市中的人。  相似文献